Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What are the best weather conditions to conduct a controlled burn?

A: Fuel moisture between 5 and 20% and wind speed between 3 and 10 mph are often cited as ideal conditions for burning. 

Q: How is the Fire Weather Forecast made?

A:The forecast uses the National Grid Model Model Output Statistics (NGM/MOS) distributed by the U.S Weather Service to forecast weather conditions.  Fuel moisture is caluclated using the mathmatical models created by the Forest Service for its Behave fire model.  The NGM/MOS data is copied off the Internet into an Excel workbook which performs all the necessary conversions and calculations.  The workbook then graphs the results in the charts which are displayed on the website.

Q: How accurate is the Fire Weather Forecast?

A: I have measured how often the forecast correctly predicted 24 hours in advance  that fuel moisture would be either above or below 20% (20% is commonly used as the highest fuel moisture that will burn).  The forecast was correct 80% of the time.   It has been my experience with my own use of the forecasts that the forecasts 24 hours in advance are often correct and that the forecasts for less than 12 hours in advance and nearly always correct.

Q: Is the "fuel moisture" line on the forecast of "1 hour fuels"?

A: No.  The moisture is the calculated estimate of the fine fuel moisture.  Fine fuels are dead  grasses and fallen leaves. 

Q: What weather conditions are considered in the estimation of the fuel moisture?

A: Fuel moisture  is determined by the predicted temperature, humidity, and wind speed -- and the estimated fuel moisture the hour before the new estimate.

Q: Does the "fuel moisture" estimate consider the affect of sunshine?

A: No.  The affects of sunshine are impacted by intensity and slope which are so locally variable that I have not been able to develop a useful way of generalizing the impacts for the forecast.